General model construction and past apps
The GTEM-C design was once validated and you will used in the CSIRO Around the globe Integrated Evaluation Model build (GIAM) to include research-mainly based facts to have ple, option greenhouse energy (GHG) emissions routes with the Garnaut Feedback, and that examined the newest impacts away from weather alter into the furfling ne demek Australian economy (Garnaut, 2011), the reduced contaminants futures system you to explored the economical impacts regarding reducing carbon dioxide emissions around australia (Australia, 2008) therefore the socio-monetary issues of your own Australian National Mind-set and you will endeavor you to definitely looked the links ranging from physics while the economy and you can arranged 20 futures having Australia over to 2050 (Hatfield-Dodds ainsi que al., 2015). In the context of agro-economics a forerunner of the GTEM-C design was used in order to evaluate monetary effects regarding environment alter influences on farming. The fresh new GTEM-C design is a key part about GIAM design, a hybrid model that combines the big-down macroeconomic symbolization out-of a great computable standard balance (CGE) design into base-up information on producing energy and you may GHG emissions.
GTEM-C yields on the worldwide trade and economic center of the Internationally Change Research Project (GTAP) (Hertel, 1997) databases (Look for Supplementary Suggestions). This process offers an alternative comprehension of the energy-carbon-ecosystem nexus (Akhtar ainsi que al., 2013) and contains come intensively used in circumstances investigation of one’s feeling out of you can easily environment futures into socio-environment possibilities (Masui et al., 2011; Riahi mais aussi al., 2011).
Writeup on new GTEM-C model
GTEM-C try a broad equilibrium and you can benefit-wide design able to projecting trajectories for international-exchanged products, instance agricultural factors. Absolute info, land and you can work try endogenous parameters during the GTEM-C. Skilled and you will unskilled work movements easily across the all of the residential sectors, nevertheless the aggregate also provide increases according to demographic and you can labor push contribution presumptions which is restricted because of the readily available operating population, which is offered exogenously toward model according to the United nations median population progress trajectory (Us, 2017). The newest simulations displayed within investigation was indeed did mode GTEM-C’s reliability in the 95% account. All over the world home urban area based on agriculture is not likely to change dramatically later on; nevertheless, new GTEM-C design adjusts harvesting area during the regions centered on demand towards the examined merchandise.
As is proper when using a CGE modelling framework, our results are based on the differences between a reference scenario and two counterfactual scenarios. The reference scenario assumes RCP8.5 carbon emissions but does not include perturbations in agricultural productivity due to climate. The RCP8.5 counterfactual scenario results in an increase in global temperatures above 2 °C by 2050 relative to pre-industrial levels. The agricultural productivities in the reference scenario are internally resolved within the GTEM-C model to meet global demand for food, assuming that technological improvements are able to buffer the influence of climate change on agricultural production. For the two counterfactual scenarios presented here, we use future agricultural productivities obtained from the AgMIP database to change GTEM-C’s total factor productivities of the four studied commodities. The counterfactual scenario with no climate change mitigation follows the RCP8.5 emission but includes exogenous agricultural perturbations from the AgMIP database. This is, changes in agricultural productivity rates were not internally calculated by GTEM-C but given by the AgMIP projections. The RCP 4.5 scenario with climate change mitigation assumes an active CO2 mitigation achieved by imposing a global carbon price, so that additional radiative forcing begins to stabilise at about 4 Wm ?2 after 2050. The carbon mitigation scenario includes exogenously perturbed agricultural productivities as modelled by the AgMIP project under RCP4.5. The RCP4.5 scenario limits global temperature increase to 1.5 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels.
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